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Market Momentum and Risks: Navigating 2025 with Optimism and Caution
The January 2025 edition of the Market in Five Charts highlights key economic and market trends from 2024 and provides an outlook for 2025. The S&P 500 posted an impressive 23% return in 2024, capping a two-year growth of 53%. Strong GDP growth, fueled by increased consumer spending and a wealth effect from market gains, was a significant driver, says Chief Global Strategist Rick Pitcairn. Despite earlier recession fears, the economy remained resilient.
Inflation waned significantly throughout 2024, enabling the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 100 basis points in the fall. Further rate cuts are expected in early 2025, contingent on inflation trends and the policies of the new Trump administration. However, the market faces valuation risks, with equity prices at record highs and requiring near-perfect future conditions to sustain them. A moderate market pullback is anticipated but is considered healthy given recent gains.
Policy risks, particularly proposed tariff increases reminiscent of the 1930s, could disrupt GDP growth and reignite inflation. Amid geopolitical, technological, and social changes, Pitcairn advocates for diversified, strategic portfolios to navigate risks while capitalizing on opportunities. Overall, 2025 is seen as a year of both challenges and optimism, with promising prospects for investors.